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Macro investment strategist Lyn Alden says she would be surprised to see Bitcoin (BTC) drop below $20,000.

In a new interview, Alden says that Bitcoin is less likely to have extreme price swings now that the market is maturing.

“I’d be somewhat surprised to see a sub 20,000 print. I don’t rule it out as an option though. One way I would describe it is that Bitcoin had these 85% drops in the past, but also had massive blow-off tops in the past. 

Most of the indicators showed they didn’t reach the same level of exuberance in this cycle, so basically you’re measuring it from a less extreme topping point. It had more of that rolling top than a huge spike. Basically the market, I think, is more mature so I would be somewhat surprised to see a 20,000 print.”

Despite her optimism, Alden says that a Bitcoin crash is still possible under certain circumstances.

The environment that I can imagine getting there, if I would have put on my bear hat for a second, it would basically be that the Fed’s tightening or at least talking about tightening…

I think if you have a liquidity event, if you have credit markets freeze, if you have some sort of major events like that, I could see a very illiquid Bitcoin spike down.

I think barring that, I’d be somewhat surprised to see a sub $20,000 sustained level.”

Alden’s comment comes after Bitcoin dropped below $34,000, or half of its all-time high, this week. At time of writing, the benchmark cryptocurrency is trading at  $37,053.32.

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